Ben Bernanke’s review is full of sound recommendations but unlikely to alter this opaque process
ECB, Fed and BOE overlooked potential for global price spikes after end of pandemic and Russian assault on Ukraine
The results of an informal contest offer insights into how to make your predictions for the next year more accurate
ooh la la
Myopia and groupthink mean this science is not as evolved as it could be
BoE’s forecasts are based on announced government policy, while everyone else can use their common sense
Mistakes in forecasting the severity of price pressures lead to soul-searching among rate setters
Economists need to be clearer about the limits of their predictions
If you want to be admired for your predictions, temper your bold claims with vagueness
We asked experts in predicting the future to answer questions about how 2023 will play out — and challenge FT readers to beat them
Forecasts for the year are bleak but the narratives we’re presented with have flaws
Reversion-to-the-mean machine
Why rely on forecasts if they’re so easily rendered inaccurate?
Prime eco beef
Conventional macroeconomic assumptions do not tally with data about returns on different kinds of capital
Experts’ full responses to questions on the year ahead for the UK economy
Annual FT survey shows living standards will fall as inflation outpaces wages in year ahead
The discipline has to update its assumptions in order to meet the biggest challenges facing society
Markets proved powerless to resist a relentless barrage of letter shapes to describe how they might bounce back
The budgetary watchdog’s scenario is of a crisis that leaves almost no economic scars
Manufacturers’ vulnerability to supply chain shock intensified by rundown in stock levels
Weather forecasters make hypotheses and test them daily
Latin America tumbles down the rankings after four decades of underperformance
Demographics will fuel the continent’s rise in a world of shrinking working-age populations
