How Kamala Harris has revitalised the Democratic campaign

Good morning and welcome to US Election Countdown! Today let’s talk about:

• Harris’s polling gains

• Democratic VP chatter

• Falling confidence in democracy

In just over a week, Kamala Harris has nearly caught up to Donald Trump in the polls.

They are now neck and neck nationally, according to an FT analysis of polling data, after Harris all but erased the 3 percentage point lead Trump had over Biden before the president dropped out of the race. [Free to read]

Trump was polling at 46.8 per cent, with Harris at 46.5 per cent as of Sunday.

With the candidates virtually level, money is even more important to their campaigns as they vie for votes in battleground states. They’ve already launched a rival ad war, which will be pricey.

Harris has committed $50mn for ads between now and the Democratic National Convention on August 19. Her first commercial, called “Fearless” centred on Harris the prosecutor — who “put murderers and abusers behind bars” — and hit at Trump for his close ties to big business.

Trump’s new $12mn ad campaign attacks Harris over immigration — her biggest political weakness. The FT’s election ad tracker has been updated to incorporate Harris’s media buys, which continue to focus on swing states. In the six key battleground states, Harris has a 1 to 3-point improvement over Biden.

The vice-president has also made gains across most demographic groups since Biden bowed out, with more support from Black and Latino voters, as well as young women and independents. Only voters over age 50 are less likely to back her than Biden.

Harris will soon announce her running mate — will her VP be able to sustain the Democrats’ momentum? 

Campaign clips: the latest election headlines

• Trump questioned Harris’s racial identity at a conference for Black journalists where he was heckled and booed by attendees, underscoring his uphill battle to woo Black voters.

• With one of their own at the top of the Democratic ticket, influential lawyers are piling in to support Harris. [Free to read]

• The United Auto Workers, one of the country’s most politically significant unions, has endorsed Harris.

• US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell has said an interest rate cut is on the table for September, which would be welcome news for Harris.

• This is how Trump’s Maga world is pivoting to take on its new opponent. (The New Yorker)

• The director of conservative Project 2025 has stepped down after Trump distanced himself from the policy framework to overhaul the federal government.

Behind the scenes

As more than 10,000 people packed into an Atlanta arena on Tuesday to see Harris, enthusiasm for the vice-president was palpable, the FT’s Lauren Fedor reported from the rally.

There was an extra buzz about who she’ll choose as her running mate. With Harris expected to start campaigning with her VP pick next week, her decision is expected in a matter of days.

The Harris campaign is reportedly vetting senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro, Kentucky governor Andy Beshear, Minnesota governor Tim Walz and transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg.

Rally attendees Shari Snow, 58, and Shari Bayer, 53, told Lauren that for days they’d been talking about who Harris would choose.

Snow said she “really” wanted Harris to pick Georgia senator Raphael Warnock. While Bayer said she thought Kelly was the “best choice”, she also voiced support for Buttigieg and Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer.

Many attendees told Lauren they were fans of Shapiro: “He has that fight that we need,” said Yvonne Marcus, 68, a volunteer for the Harris campaign. Others echoed Bayer’s support for Buttigieg, but all said they were concerned that Buttigieg’s sexual orientation could undercut his chances.

Jennifer Coggin, 64, said:

In my heart of hearts, I would love to have her pick Pete Buttigieg, but I think that would be asking a lot of the country right now.

Dwayne Lagrone, 26, agreed:

I really want Pete Buttigieg, but I think that might be too progressive for the rest of America.

Datapoint

We’ve decided to take a step back from the daily headlines to take a look at Americans’ changing views of democracy.

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Just 28 per cent of Americans are satisfied with how democracy is working, the lowest share since at least 1985, according to Gallup.

While Democrats have seen the sharpest drop-off in recent years — with a 9 percentage point decrease between 2021 and 2023 — a significantly lower share of Republicans said they were satisfied with US democracy. Only 17 per cent of Republican adults were satisfied with the way the country’s democracy was working in 2023, compared with 38 per cent of Democrats.

It’s also striking to see how this data breaks down along educational lines.

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While confidence in democracy has fallen across all education levels, there’s been a particularly steep drop among those who have not attended college.

These voters have been drawn to Trump and his Maga rhetoric since the 2016 campaign, and Harris — along with her VP pick — will be trying to reconnect with them ahead of election day. We’ll be watching to see what role the notion of democracy plays in this revamped race.

In his latest opinion column, the FT’s Martin Wolf had this to say:

In the past, the power of the US president has been contained by a strong civic morality, by the decency of its senior political figures, by an independent judiciary and by independent political parties. But much of this has been eroded.

The damage done to the credibility of democracy is already noteworthy: confidence has been eroded, not just in US democracy, but in democracy itself. This will get worse.

Viewpoints

• America’s bitcoin politics is both electoral and substantive, writes Edward Luce. In his column he explains why.

• In her latest Lex column, Louise Lucas says Trump’s pitch to the crypto crowd lacks logic.

• Janan Ganesh tells us how foreign policy for Republicans is a self-contradicting mess.

• Christopher Cadelago walks us through how Harris could avoid another presidential campaign collapse. (Politico Magazine)