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OK. So, Robert, what question are we pondering today?
What are the chances the world's shipping industry can get its carbon emissions down to a net zero level by the target of 2050?
The business of moving cargo by sea is one of the very hardest human activities to decarbonise. By volume, about 90 per cent of the world's trade moves by sea, and it creates about 3 per cent of the world's carbon emissions. This isn't a straightforward business.
There are some companies that own hundreds of container ships. But even in international shipping, some of the companies are tiny. There are still plenty of Greek families that own one or two dry bulk carriers or oil tankers. Any means of decarbonising shipping has to work for both of those extremes.
Different ships work in different ways, too. Those big container ships go around the world according to a timetable, in circles. If they have to switch to a new kind of fuel, and that fuel is available somewhere in that route, that's going to work for them. But those Greek families' bulk carriers, they're like taxis, going wherever in the world they're needed. If they can't be sure the fuel they need is going to be available everywhere in the world they're probably not going to use it.
The body in charge of making sure that everyone decarbonises is the United Nations International Maritime Organisation based in London. It had said it wants the sector to be making a net zero contribution to atmospheric carbon by 2050. It's also said it wants new rules to make sure that happens approved next year and in force by 2027. But it's not yet decided what those new rules should be.
The sweeping fixes look expensive and hard to implement. Ships could be fuelled by methanol, which is expensive; ammonia, which is toxic; or hydrogen, which takes up vast amounts of space. Lots of people are experimenting with sophisticated high-tech sales. Liquefied natural gas gives off less carbon for each unit of energy. That's proving a popular choice for some types of vessels. Ship owners' big worry is that they'll plump for a new technology, only to find there's no fuel being made, and their multi-million dollar investment is useless.
And what if the rules aren't tough enough? No one wants to be paying the high prices that are expected for these new low-carbon fuels, which could well be four times the price of the existing hydrocarbons, and then find an unscrupulous competitor is undercutting them by still using the old product. There are certainly some reasons to be gloomy. It's still not clear that the International Maritime Organisation will come up with good, really robust rules that cover the full range of ships.
On the other hand, ship owners have been paying for their emissions since January this year whenever they arrive in a European port. They say that's been changing the way they plan their voyages in order to reduce the amount of carbon they emit. And ships ready to use ammonia or methanol as fuel are starting to come out of Asia's shipyards.
The outlook for clean shipping remains in the balance. Put in rules with the right incentives and there's an excellent chance that ship owners will invest accordingly. But botch that process and there's a real risk that ships will continue to warm the planet for decades to come.
